A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
